The NOAA is Letting Me Down...

[LeilaniOtter]

For the last month or so, the weather alerts are stagnant, whenever we're told to expect thunderstorms we never get them, and temperature predictions have been right out. Has anyone else noticed less than accurate weather forecasting lately from their phones...?

 

[Arkus86]

I never noticed an accurate weather prediction.

 

[Representing_Tromba]

There hasn't been a truly accurate weather news source ever. You can trust the local elderly's knees better than most weather forecasts.

 

[AnonUnlimited]

It's because I have been using my weather machine to change the forecasts.
You're welcome.

 

[LeilaniOtter]

There hasn't been a truly accurate weather news source ever. You can trust the local elderly's knees better than most weather forecasts.

Well, mine are definitely telling me something, I don't know what. *^^*

It's because I have been using my weather machine to change the forecasts.
You're welcome.

FOR THE LOVE OF THE GODS, SEND US RAIN ALREADY!!!! ???

 

[Tyranomaster]

For the last month or so, the weather alerts are stagnant, whenever we're told to expect thunderstorms we never get them, and temperature predictions have been right out. Has anyone else noticed less than accurate weather forecasting lately from their phones...?

This is heavily dependent on where you are in the US.

The last 3 years have been a la nina weather pattern, where as right now we're between la nina and el nino. When we're between the two, the central US gets some wild unpredictability in weather because both the tropical and arctic jet streams move a lot. Further, because the jet streams are moving a lot, this brings gulf humidity up creating a lot of potential energy for storms. Basically it "could" thunderstorm at any point, but there has to be isolated disruptions. Those disruptions happen willy nilly, so you get some very unpredictable weather.

If you're on the west coast, the jet streams moving a lot makes your weather way less predictable then the normal steady state of weather you get. The only places that it would be surprising that there is a disruption is maybe Northern Washington and Alaska.

TLDR, we've had 3 years of a more "stable" pattern, and weather prediction technology has actually improved quite a bit in those three years, so it can feel like a real regression.

 

[LeilaniOtter]

This is heavily dependent on where you are in the US. View attachment 39923

The last 3 years have been a la nina weather pattern, where as right now we're between la nina and el nino. When we're between the two, the central US gets some wild unpredictability in weather because both the tropical and arctic jet streams move a lot. Further, because the jet streams are moving a lot, this brings gulf humidity up creating a lot of potential energy for storms. Basically it "could" thunderstorm at any point, but there has to be isolated disruptions. Those disruptions happen willy nilly, so you get some very unpredictable weather.

If you're on the west coast, the jet streams moving a lot makes your weather way less predictable then the normal steady state of weather you get. The only places that it would be surprising that there is a disruption is maybe Northern Washington and Alaska.

TLDR, we've had 3 years of a more "stable" pattern, and weather prediction technology has actually improved quite a bit in those three years, so it can feel like a real regression.

Well, I'm in the dead blank light peach spot so there we are. ?

 

[Tyranomaster]

Well, I'm in the dead blank light peach spot so there we are. ?

For some additional info, coming from a Midwesterner, this time of year, you're essentially flipping coins. A 100% chance of rain does not mean you'll have a 100% chance of seeing rain. The NWS breaks down predictions into county sized chunks for most of the US (some places with large counties have subdivisions). Your county has a 100% chance of seeing rain somewhere in it. You individually may not. Right now is isolated supercell season. Those cells might be 1/10th the area of a county or less. If you see big storm clouds somewhere in the sky, but you're clear, check a place like https://web.weatherwise.app/, and click on your nearest radar. That large cloud is probably dropping like 1 inch of rain in your county. They're getting the rain and you aren't, but the prediction was correct.

Edit: I decided to verify my info, and I was wrong, at least according to the latest stuff from NWS.

Forecaster certainty that precipitation will form or move into the area X Areal coverage of precipitation that is expected (and then moving the decimal point two places to the left)

Using this, here are two examples giving the same statistical result:
(1) If the forecaster was 80% certain that rain would develop but only expected to cover 50% of the forecast area, then the forecast would read "a 40% chance of rain" for any given location.
(2) If the forecaster expected a widespread area of precipitation with 100% coverage to approach, but he/she was only 40% certain that it would reach the forecast area, this would, as well, result in a "40% chance of rain" at any given location in the forecast area.

 

[Deleted member 166465]

Here is a prediction:
Tomorrow the sun will come out, it may shine on the sky or be hidding behind clouds. If by any chance the sun does not comes out, we are fu***d, all of us are fu***d, so you can call your boss and tell him to kiss you behind, in case the sun doesnt comes out just for you... you are dead. If you are dead and there is anything in the great beyond, please let me know.
Now here is a more exact prediction: "100% crazy with a 50% chance of squizofrenia."
God I love the creeper.

 

[LeilaniOtter]

For some additional info, coming from a Midwesterner, this time of year, you're essentially flipping coins. A 100% chance of rain does not mean you'll have a 100% chance of seeing rain. The NWS breaks down predictions into county sized chunks for most of the US (some places with large counties have subdivisions). Your county has a 100% chance of seeing rain somewhere in it. You individually may not. Right now is isolated supercell season. Those cells might be 1/10th the area of a county or less. If you see big storm clouds somewhere in the sky, but you're clear, check a place like https://web.weatherwise.app/, and click on your nearest radar. That large cloud is probably dropping like 1 inch of rain in your county. They're getting the rain and you aren't, but the prediction was correct.

Edit: I decided to verify my info, and I was wrong, at least according to the latest stuff from NWS.

Forecaster certainty that precipitation will form or move into the area X Areal coverage of precipitation that is expected (and then moving the decimal point two places to the left)

Using this, here are two examples giving the same statistical result:
(1) If the forecaster was 80% certain that rain would develop but only expected to cover 50% of the forecast area, then the forecast would read "a 40% chance of rain" for any given location.
(2) If the forecaster expected a widespread area of precipitation with 100% coverage to approach, but he/she was only 40% certain that it would reach the forecast area, this would, as well, result in a "40% chance of rain" at any given location in the forecast area.

I've been on this world a while and I can recall the seasons being a whole lot different when I was younger. Nowadays, I think my area of the country is about a month behind what they were back then. So, it's actually early summer/late spring now. Of course, Lake Erie finally froze a bit so that could be causing wild temperature swings too.

 

[Gray_Mann]

I don't think it's ever been accurate where I am in the last 5-6 years or so that I've been paying attention. The only time it's even remotely accurate is during emergency alerts, and it's even been wrong there a few times!!

If it says 80-90% chance of rain.....I'll end up pissing more than it rains.

Like today, I got 41% chance of rain, and it rained for a few minutes about an hour ago. Yesterday, it was supposed to be 76% chance of rain, and it was blue skies and sunny all day. Hardly a cloud visible. Weather forecasting/predicting is NOT an advanced science, if my area means anything.

I've been on this world a while and I can recall the seasons being a whole lot different when I was younger. Nowadays, I think my area of the country is about a month behind what they were back then. So, it's actually early summer/late spring now. Of course, Lake Erie finally froze a bit so that could be causing wild temperature swings too.

Main things I've noticed different, are that it snows more in the winter now. February used to be our big nasty month but hardly anything any other month. Now, during the last decade it's snowed in January as well as February, and sometimes even March nearly every year, whereas this used to only be a rare occurrence. It rains more in Winter than I remember as well. As for the warmer months, humidity levels have been worse than I remember the last 5 or so years.

All in all, everything has gotten more "wet" in different ways than I remember, both during the colder and warmer seasons.

 

[LeilaniOtter]

Main things I've noticed different, are that it snows more in the winter now. February used to be our big nasty month but hardly anything any other month. Now, during the last decade it's snowed in January as well as February, and sometimes even March nearly every year, whereas this used to only be a rare occurrence. It rains more in Winter than I remember as well. As for the warmer months, humidity levels have been worse than I remember the last 5 or so years.

All in all, everything has gotten more "wet" in different ways than I remember, both during the colder and warmer seasons.

Exactly. I remember we would get a deluge of snow before or during the Christmas holidays. I mean, you could count on snow falling in December at least 3-4 times. In the last 10-12 years, we barely saw snow in December. We get snow now after January and into February, and it's NOT that cold either. Something else that puzzles me. We used to have bitter cold Septembers and Octobers too, but we're still seeing highs sometimes in the 70s, 80s, and above now. Global warming? I certainly believe it.

 

[LiteraryWho]

This is heavily dependent on where you are in the US. View attachment 39923

The last 3 years have been a la nina weather pattern, where as right now we're between la nina and el nino. When we're between the two, the central US gets some wild unpredictability in weather because both the tropical and arctic jet streams move a lot. Further, because the jet streams are moving a lot, this brings gulf humidity up creating a lot of potential energy for storms. Basically it "could" thunderstorm at any point, but there has to be isolated disruptions. Those disruptions happen willy nilly, so you get some very unpredictable weather.

If you're on the west coast, the jet streams moving a lot makes your weather way less predictable then the normal steady state of weather you get. The only places that it would be surprising that there is a disruption is maybe Northern Washington and Alaska.

TLDR, we've had 3 years of a more "stable" pattern, and weather prediction technology has actually improved quite a bit in those three years, so it can feel like a real regression.

Saying AZ weather is predictable is a total meme. You could just have a big sign that says "today will be sunny" and it would be right 90% of the time.

 

[LeilaniOtter]

Saying AZ weather is predictable is a total meme. You could just have a big sign that says "today will be sunny" and it would be right 90% of the time.

Or in my case, if you're in Ohio, you get all four seasons in one day in May. I remember it so well, because we had to pick up someone from the airport that day. May 5th, 2005. It started out cold, with frost, at 33 then spring like temperatures, then a high of 78, back down to a low of 50 at night - a total of 60 degrees turnaround start to end.

 

[RepresentingDesire]

I feel like that many people that had predicted the weather and some devices that helped do that being not there anymore has something to do with it. You should be joyful that NOAA does still exist, furthermore it should be obvious that every wheather prodcast is based percentages.

 

[LeilaniOtter]

I feel like that many people that had predicted the weather and some devices that helped do that being not there anymore has something to do with it. You should be joyful that NOAA does still exist, furthermore it should be obvious that every wheather prodcast is based percentages.

Yeah, I think I'll go back to the old way of weather forecasting, watching my local news and not relying too much on my smartphone all the time.

 

[SternenklarenRitter]

Well they did fire a lot of people. The theory is that you can get 80% quality with only 50% of the budget, and the last 20% of quality probably wouldn't have saved any lives anyway. Do we really need a hurricane forecast 5 days out? Maybe 4 days is enough for quick evacuations. So the current directors are applying such philosophe to all facets of weather services, and if nobody dies then firing everyone was a good idea after all.

 

[LeilaniOtter]

Well they did fire a lot of people. The theory is that you can get 80% quality with only 50% of the budget, and the last 20% of quality probably wouldn't have saved any lives anyway. Do we really need a hurricane forecast 5 days out? Maybe 4 days is enough for quick evacuations. So the current directors are applying such philosophe to all facets of weather services, and if nobody dies then firing everyone was a good idea after all.

The problem with hurricanes is that you have tons of time to escape it. No one needs to die in a hurricane if they're simply not there. But a lot of low-income or stubborn people either don't have the means to escape, or don't feel it's a serious enough threat. We went through Sandy when she hit New England states and the wind was constant 80 mph. I'd never been a hurricane before then. I can't imagine what 180 would be like.