...Jesus, I don't even know what to say. You kicked me pretty hard in the balls with that one.
I'm sorry if I'm tough on this question. When I was thirteen years old, I thought NASA was on the verge of dying. We were no longer going to the Moon, we no longer had the space shuttle, and had to pay Russia to take us to the international space station. Somehow, SpaceX, Rocket lab, and countless other private companies have changed the tide. A lot needs to be done to improve the situation, but we are finally going in a direction where the cost of space is decreasing, where we are getting closer to a sci fi future. Sadly that future can't be gifted to us by some perfect heroic NASA that doesn't have to worry about cost.
Everything in space costs tons of money, and that cost will only go down if a bunch of companies are fighting tooth and nail to lower those costs. We need to watching things carefully to make sure they do so in an ethical and environmentally manner (look up Everyday Astronaut's video on rocket pollution for more information on that topic ) - but overall things are going in a great direction.
We have Americans flying to space on our own spacecraft again, and for cheaper than ever. More spacecraft like Boeing's Starliner, SNC's Dreamchaser, and Lockheed Martin's Orion are coming online. Commercial space stations coming online in the late 2020s will lead to an explosion of scientific and commercial research in zero G that could make for great breakthroughs in materials science, biomedical, and more.
And perhaps most flashy and exciting of all, there is a real likelihood we'll return to the Moon and go onward to Mars in the coming decade. I hate to break the fun to hate illusion, but isn't going to be Elon and Jeff getting out of their rockets shouting at each other to get off their property. It'll be NASA astronauts likely on a SpaceX rocket, and any sort of pie in the sky colonization isn't the kind of thing we'll see until mid-century - but it is more possible today than it ever has been.
The reason why I am upset is because many in the general public are letting themselves be deceived. Their very understandable frustration with controlling corporations is weaponized. People in congress and in other places of power do not like innovation. They do not like things getting cheaper. When Boeing wants to change NASA a billion dollars for every launch of SLS, it does not benefit them to have a public crying out to their congressman or woman that we need cheaper options.
So I am not asking you all to not criticize billionaires - nothing would please me more than if Elon Musk would sit down and let Gwynn Shotwell run SpaceX - but for the time being, I ask you all to search out proper sources of information (ie, sites like Ars Technica, and not mainstream outlets who are only casually reporting on space), and use that to form the opinion. The influential figures leading this revolution are not to be worshipped or treated as the apocalypse incarnate, they are people who are a mix of good and bad.
PS - all the news articles talking about a "billionaire space race" - they're bs. SpaceX is like a decade ahead of every other company. Elon could go into space if he wanted to, but he apparently doesn't. Jeff Bezos is looking like he won't launch a person into actual orbit for at least five - eight years. Richard Branson's company Virgin Galactic "beat" Jeff Bezos's Blue Origin, but the company is pretty close to going under. This narrative however makes for good, though highly inaccurate news articles.
I will get off my soap box now. Again, I apologize if I come across as the know it all kid freaking out. I am finally watching my lifelong passion of spaceflight go somewhere, and it really hurts when someone says that they want it to die, and want to go back to the space shuttle - something that for all its victories, was immensely overcomplicated to the point that it cost the lives of 14 astronauts.
So again, my plea to you all - be vigorous in searching out good sources on science and technology. We have glorious exciting things we could have in our future, things that are a respite from the troubles of our modern world - and I'd hate to see that future snuffed out.
Technically, the deep ocean is similarly dangerous compared to space, just different hazards. That said, it is far easier to get supplies, and help if anything goes wrong. I highly doubt there will be any fleeing to space anytime soon, however. As mentioned above, there is basically no way they would go there on their own, as it would be backbreaking work, to be nice about it, for decades at best, and it is hilariously easy to kill someone in space or on another planet, so they couldn't just threaten whoever they want unless they wanted to figure out what breathing vacuum is like, or waking up locked in a room with the airflow cut, or any number of other nasty things.
I'd be far more concerned about the planned company cities that have been talked about. After having worked for Amazon for five years, I can tell you from firsthand experience that they would be hell on earth, and death would be very common if they got to make their own rules.
Undersea bunkers are far more likely, as they can still import food and materials from the surface, and it isn't too hard to imagine someone living down there and coming up with a private military force to threaten people if the apocalypse happens and they get enough warning.
Even more likely, I believe, would be simply closed ecosystems on the surface such as small arcologies, with insane entry requirements, and people being allowed to take loans that essentially make them slaves in order to get into the climate controlled safe havens. Then those in control would have a source of workers who can't reasonably rebel due to ease of threatening their lives. Properly designed, one can easily create a self-contained structure where the only required inputs are raw materials to fabricate replacement parts, and minerals for fertilizer. And those are easy enough to obtain with a bit of wealth. Recycling water, hydro/aero/aquaponics for food (and helping purify water, and helping purify air) with solar power, wind power, and collecting rain that hits the structure, place industrial sections at the bottom, habitation in the middle, and farming at the top to make maximum use of the natural flow of heat, multiple redundant systems so it can sustain minor failures without losing habitability. It is quite reasonably possible.
I think the more pressing worry that companies like Amazon would pull is just move to where the work is cheapest. They aren't going to move to space, or move underwater - they're going to move to a country run by a dictator they can easily pay off.
On the flip side though, there is a kernel of good intentions to what Jeff Bezos purports to want - a future where all heavy manufacturing is in cislunar space. This way we can source the bulk of our materials from asteroid mining, and fabricate it all up there using space based solar. It would remove these heavy industries from Earth and allow us to save the Earth for better use.
Do I think Jeff Bezos has the capability or goodness in his heart to accomplish this? Ha. Absolutely not. I do think that other companies will perhaps promote this. There are some valuable things like fibre optic cables to made in space. 3d printing biomaterials alone will be a massive innovation in of itself.
