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I mean, it's obviously possible. Otherwise twists wouldn't exist.

But doesn't the concept of twist of contradict the idea of predicting the plot?

No. In order to make a twist, the viewer has to understand where the plot is supposed to go in the first place. How can you be surprised that things aren't going where you thought they would if you haven't already predicted the original outcome?

Just don't do a dick move and purposefully make a twist where there is supposed to be none. You will only result in a sprained relationship.

That is an expectation they had. Not a prediction in an objective sense. Because it actually didn't develop like this. They were just made to believe that it would, meanwhile it didn't. So their prediction was factually wrong.

If you don't write the twist, then they'd be right though...

Anyway, the point is everyone is a general after the battle. My impression is rather that people talk themselves retroactively into the idea that they have predicted it. Nobody puts their hand into the fire if they have to predict before it happens.

But they weren't right. As they didn't see the twist coming.

For the first one, I'm sure there's people that do that. I've never understood people like that.

For the second, that just flat out doesn't make any sense. It's pure troll logic.

It is not troll logic. It is why predicting the future has always been an age old fallacy. Or to quote Rumsfeld:

b"ecause as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns—the ones we don't know we don't know."

I think you might have a different definition of 'prediction' than I do. A prediction is an estimate. An educated guess. You can say, for the most part, that something is likely to happen. It's not a prophecy or a one hundred percent guarantee that something will happen. It doesn't actually even matter if it's right or wrong.

Say that to the investors if they sue you for damages.

Anyway, this margin of probability is usually not recognised in hindsight.